Part 2: Creating Credible Forecasts for Drug Development (Video)

Laura

When we think about value, I think of a broader definition. It often starts early in the process with the forecast. What will this brand’s value be at the peak and how will that change over time? So when we think about putting together a realistic and credible forecast, I would advocate that there needs to be a commercial lens on that development. It will have an important impact on your decision-making downstream, driving your company value. Often your brand story is crafted starting at the forecast level. So It should be pressure tested with the commercial viewpoint, or in my opinion, there’s a real risk that key items or assumptions could be missed, which would have a very negative impact downstream. 

Santosh, you worked with several biotech companies for 5-year stretches, what’s been your experience with that?

Santosh

Yes, it is of critical importance for clinical biotechs to have a credible forecast. Funding and investments are based on having that credible forecast, and clients need a forecast that is both robust and easily able to be refreshed as market dynamics change across the development of the asset. To build a robust credible forecast, primary research with customers is a requirement. Identifying reliable analogs and purchasing additional secondary data sets to supplement your primary research will also help support the generation of that realistic credible forecast. 

Another important development that we have seen through our work with both biotechs and big pharma is the acceleration of market-shaping efforts. Market shaping on branding campaigns typically would be launched 6-12 months before a launch. But we’ve recently seen the trend of unbranded campaigns launching 18 to 24 months before a launch, which forces a firm to start thinking through what their strategic plan would be earlier in the process, as they build out both their branded strategy, but also their unbranded strategy. And that gets back to the original point of beginning planning for your marketing campaigns earlier and earlier in the process.

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At Herspiegel we’ve advised over 100 biotech companies in the past 6-7 years, and the majority have relied on external partners to augment their strategic thinking as they prepare for launch. With biotech company budgets and resources being very tight, having the expertise and flexibility and the ability to bounce ideas off those partners, build business cases, and inform decisions with credible benchmarking and best practices across the industry is important. 

At Herspiegel we believe that with a company that is launching their first asset, you have to build the plane as you’re flying it. As part of that, you need to rely on strategic thinking and external partners to support you as you build out a best-in-class strategy. 

If you are a small or a growing biotech company, please reach out and we’d be happy to discuss your situation and how we can help support you to ensure commercial success for your asset.